Texas is getting two new House seats and Florida one, helping Republican chances of winning a majority in 2022 and scrambling the Electoral College calculus for both parties in the 2024 presidential race.
Population growth is driving the increased House representation for the two Sun Belt states in the 435-member House of Representatives, per data released by the Census Bureau on Monday that decides how many seats each state gets for the next decade.
In addition to the pickups for Texas and Florida, four others states will gain one House seat each: Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
But population growth in one area usually coincides with people moving out of other states. So seven will lose one House seat each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
The Texas population boom will boost its House membership from 36 to 38 members, while the Florida delegation will jump from 27 to 28 lawmakers.
That’s generally good news for Republicans because state-level lawmakers control the redistricting process.
In Texas, Republicans are likely to draw at least two new seats where they have a strong chance of winning. And possibly a fourth, by divvying up districts currently held by Democrats. The Rio Grande Valley, in South Texas along the U. S.-Mexico border, is a particularly inviting target because in 2020 then-President Donald Trump made significant gains with Latino voters there while losing nationwide to President Joe Biden.